Report on climate change : In order to have a good chance of meeting the limits set by the Paris Agreement, it will be necessary to both reduce greenhouse gas emissions while preserving carbon sinks, with net emissions peaking in the next 10 years. These 10 years are crucial for achieving climate change goals.
Details of the Study
- Published in the journal Nature Communications, researchers from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA).
- They used a global model of the carbon system that accounts for carbon release and uptake through both natural and anthropogenic activities.
- Study shows that the combined energy and land-use system should deliver zero net anthropogenic emissions well before 2040 in order to assure the attainability of a 1.5°C target by 2100.
- Fossil fuel consumption would likely need to be reduced to less than 25% of the global energy supply by 2100, compared to 95% today.
- At the same time, land use change, such as deforestation, must be decreased.
- This would lead to a 42% decrease in cumulative emissions by the end of the century compared to a business as usual scenario.
- In a “high-renewable” scenario wind, solar, and bioenergy increase by around 5% a year, net emissions could peak by 2022
Significance of study
- Paris Agreement set a target of limiting average temperature increase to well below 2°C and pursue efforts to even further limit the average increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
- The timing and details of these efforts were left to individual countries.
- This study gives a broad accounting of the carbon dioxide in our atmosphere, where it comes from and where it goes.
- Considering emissions from fossil fuels not enough , but the agriculture, land use, food production, bioenergy, and carbon uptake by natural ecosystems.
- Without substantial negative emissions technologies lead to a global average temperature rise of 2.5°C, missing the Paris Agreement target
- Continued reliance on fossil fuels would cause carbon emissions, causing an estimated 3.5°C global temperature rise by 2100.
Source : Science Daily , Wikipedia
GS III : Conservation, environmental pollution and degradation, environmental impact assessment